📈 Sales Up 19% and Prices Down 15% in Some Segments

🏠 FOR BUYERS: Opportunity Is Knocking — Hard

Mortgage rates have dropped to 6.1%  — the lowest in over a year. That’s a 7.5% reduction in monthly payments, creating some of the most favorable conditions buyers have seen in recent memory.

At first, activity lagged as many buyers waited to see where rates would stabilize — a common trend. Once rates settled around 6.3%, buyer activity finally surged, reaching levels higher than any October in the past three years. Prices Have Been Quietly Falling Too

List prices under $1M dropped an average of 2.5% from May to August, then leveled out by September. These homes will likely close in late Q4 — potentially at the lowest closing prices of the year.

Here’s where the biggest savings are showing up:

• Condos ($250K–$300K in Maricopa County): Down 4.3% since July, and 15% below 2022’s peak.
• Single-Family Homes ($300K–$400K in Pinal County): Down 6.7% since April, and 15% below the 2022 peak.
• Single-Family Homes ($300K–$400K in Maricopa County): Down 2.9% since last year, and 13% below 2022’s peak.

Meanwhile, the overall metro median price remains up slightly year-over-year — proof that broad market numbers don’t tell the full story.

🍂 Why Q4 Is Historically the Best Time to Buy

The fourth quarter is a seasonal sweet spot for buyers in Greater Phoenix. Supply often rises before the holidays, but buyer competition stays low. This results in:

• More price reductions before Thanksgiving
• More negotiating power for buyers
• More builder and seller incentives before year-end closings

Many buyers hold out for the “perfect” moment — but real estate is a long-term wealth builder, and today’s conditions are setting the stage for strong equity growth ahead.

💼 FOR SELLERS: The Market Is Turning in Select Price Ranges

It’s no secret that 2025 has been a challenge for sellers. Stock market swings slowed luxury sales early in the year, and mortgage rate volatility made it harder for buyers to commit.

But there’s good news: momentum is shifting.

Sales between $500K–$1.5M jumped 19% year-over-year in September, increasing the price segment’s market share from 36% to 38%. Median and average price-per-square-foot both rose across the Valley.

Why?

• Jumbo mortgage rates dropped below 30-year conventional loans for the first time in two years.
• High-income buyers are favoring adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), currently averaging 5.8%.

🧾 Seller Incentives Are Back — and Bigger Than Ever

In September, 56% of MLS closings included seller-paid concessions, averaging $10,000 per transaction. Many of these incentives go toward temporary rate buydowns, helping buyers afford more home for less.

As appreciation has cooled and home values dipped, sellers offering incentives might dwindle — meaning buyers who act now could benefit most.

📍 Where Sellers Still Have the Advantage

Despite an overall buyer’s market across Greater Phoenix, several areas remain strong seller’s markets:

Top Seller Markets:

• Fountain Hills
• Paradise Valley
• Scottsdale

Also Favorable for Sellers:

• Anthem
• El Mirage
• Avondale
• Chandler
• Gilbert
• Apache Junction
• Sun Lakes

Balanced Markets:
Phoenix, Glendale, Mesa, Tempe, Tolleson, and Sun City West.

Buyer’s Markets:
Mostly on the outskirts — Peoria (barely), Surprise, Goodyear, Laveen, Buckeye, Gold Canyon, San Tan Valley, Queen Creek, Maricopa, Arizona City, and Casa Grande.

⏳ Timing Is Everything

The 4th quarter can be slower for sellers, but with the right price strategy, patience, and preparation, a well-positioned home can still secure a strong offer before year-end.

Those considering waiting until Q1 2026 should plan for more competition — new listings typically surge from January through March, alongside higher buyer activity through May.

💬 THE BOTTOMLINE

• Buyers: This fall is your moment. Rates, prices, and incentives have aligned to create one of the most favorable buying windows in years.
• Sellers: While the market still leans toward buyers, higher-end homes are seeing renewed momentum. With smart pricing and positioning, you can still make your move before the new year.