As we move into a new year, the Greater Phoenix housing market is entering 2026 with clearer signals, steadier momentum, and a shift toward balance. Inventory, affordability, and buyer behavior are all telling a more nuanced story—one that matters for both buyers and sellers planning their next move.
For Buyers
More Options, But Trade-Offs Still Matter
Buying season has officially begun, and January is once again bringing a fresh wave of listings—particularly in luxury and retirement communities. While new listings are down just 2.5% year-over-year, that number is still stronger than the historically low January inventory levels seen from 2020–2024.
One of the biggest changes is happening at the most affordable end of the market:
- Listings under $300K are up 15% year-over-year
- Nearly 3,800 active listings, making up 18% of total supply
- Prices in this range are down 2–3% and continue to soften
This segment is largely made up of condos and mobile homes in central cities like Phoenix and Mesa, with more single-family options appearing farther out in areas such as Pinal County.
From a payment perspective, a $300K FHA purchase averages about $1,860/month (before taxes and HOA), making ownership competitive with rent. However, affordability often comes with lifestyle decisions. Renters paying higher rents in premium locations may not be able to upgrade within the same area—but they may find opportunities in similar housing types or by expanding their search to outer cities like Maricopa.
The data suggests something important:
Affordability challenges are easing not because demand is disappearing, but because buyers are weighing location preferences more carefully.
For Sellers
Sales Are Rising, But Pricing Still Requires Precision
Greater Phoenix closed out 2025 with total annual sales up 3.5%, adding more than 2,300 transactions compared to the year before.
This came despite notable slowdowns in new construction:
- New home sales were down nearly 6%
- New construction permits fell 21%
- Builder confidence remains low due to labor and lot shortages
- Even so, several cities saw meaningful sales growth—particularly those with strong demand or continued development activity.
Top cities by number of additional closed sales:
Top cities by percentage growth:
The Bottom Line
A Market Moving Toward Balance
Entering 2026, mortgage rates in the high-5% to low-6% range mean monthly payments are 10–12% lower on the same-priced homes compared to a year ago. This improvement is expected to support stronger first-quarter activity.
That said, price movement remains uneven:
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Under $400K: Prices declining
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Mid-range: Largely flat
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Upper-end: Modest appreciation
Greater Phoenix is clearly pulling out of a buyer’s market and moving toward balance, but a true seller’s market is not on the horizon. Success in 2026—for both buyers and sellers—will come down to realistic pricing, strategic location choices, and understanding where demand is strongest.